SEND Spending on Track to Outstrip Justice Budget by 2029, Warns IFS
As reported by The Independent, spending on support for children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) is rising so sharply that it could exceed the Ministry of Justice’s day-to-day budget within the next five years, according to new analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
The IFS projects that, by the end of the current parliamentary term, combined spending on education, health and care plans (EHCPs) and disability benefits for children could reach £21 billion. Within that total, the child disability living allowance (CDLA) alone is expected to account for £6 billion by 2029 – more than double its real-terms level in 2016.
Economists warn that this surge in funding for high-needs children may have long-term implications, potentially leading to even greater costs as these children transition into adulthood and continue to require support.
The number of children in England requiring specialist assistance has grown rapidly.
- 5.2% of pupils under 16 now have an EHCP, nearly double the 2.7% recorded a decade ago.
- 7.2% of children receive CDLA, compared with 3.4% ten years ago.
Much of this increase, the IFS said, reflects a rise in diagnoses of autism and ADHD, conditions now accounting for a growing share of SEND support.
The IFS also highlighted troubling evidence that children with EHCPs or receiving CDLA often face poorer outcomes later in life, underscoring the importance of early, effective intervention rather than relying on escalating expenditure.
In response to growing financial pressures, the Government plans to outline reforms to the SEND system in its forthcoming Schools White Paper later this year. Officials have said that significant changes are needed to make the system both fairer and financially sustainable.
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