As reported by The Telegraph, labour’s plan to tax private schools might flood already full grammar schools, making it tougher for students to secure spots
The party’s plan to charge 20 per cent VAT on the independent sector, which experts have warned would trigger an exodus of pupils, could make it harder for gifted children to get places in the selective state schools, analysis of public data suggests.
Sixty-four of England’s 163 grammar schools – 39 per cent – are at or over capacity, according to the latest figures, meaning they are teaching more children than they officially have spaces for.
However, the proportion of grammars that are 95 per cent or higher capacity goes up to 74 per cent of the sector.
Among these schools there are only 1,404 spare unfilled places.
There also appears to be a close correlation between areas with grammar schools in them where there are both a high number of private schools and where the grammars are heavily oversubscribed.
Last week independent schools leaders said many smaller schools were on a financial “knife edge” and could be forced to close if Labour presses ahead with its pledge to charge VAT and abolish business rates relief, which the party claims will raise £1.7 billion.
Analysts have also predicted that, irrespective of school closures, up to 17.1 per cent of private school pupils will be forced out of the sector by the expected rise in fees over five years, with more than 10 per cent expected to leave within just one year.
A report published on Tuesday by the education consultancy Baines Cutler suggested almost half of private school pupils – 224,000 – could be driven out by Sir Keir Starmer’s tax raid.
The analysis has heightened concerns that Labour’s flagship policy, criticised by the Conservatives as the “politics of envy”, will end up disadvantaging poorer families as well as those who can afford the independent sector.
On Tuesday, Greg Hands, the trade minister, said on a visit to a school in his Chelsea and Fulham constituency: “This is a vindictive move. I don’t think it’s going to raise the money that Labour think it’s going to raise.
“And I think it will have a really bad impact on independent schools, but also the state sector.
“I think a lot of parents will be priced out of the independent sector and move into the state sector, which round here is already heavily oversubscribed.”
Andrew Lewer, a Conservative member of the education select committee, said: “The closer you look at Labour’s tax on education, the worse it looks. The impact on SEND children [those with special educational needs], the impact on Armed Forces families and now it is clear grammar schools are adversely impacted as well.”
The figures showed that in the 15 local authority areas where independent schools make up more than 10 per cent of all schools, grammar schools are already over-capacity in 13.
In Barnet, north London, 22 per cent of all schools are private, while the grammar schools in the area are over capacity by 2.7pc.
Meanwhile, in Kent 13.7 per cent of schools are private, with grammars in the oversubscribed by four per cent.
Across the country grammar schools are on average at 98.7 per cent of their capacity.
Sir Keir Starmer’s planned tax raid has already claimed one victim, with Alton School, which caters for 370 pupils, set to close, The Telegraph revealed last week.
Parents at the £18,000-a-year Catholic school blamed the threat of the policy for the removal of children that caused the Hampshire institution to collapse.
Meanwhile, other private school parents looking to escape the expected hike in fees have already been warned there are very few state school places available.
On Sunday, Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, said private schools must make cuts in order to cope with the tax increase.
“I’m sure that private schools can make efficiencies in the same way that state schools have been making efficiencies this last decade or so,” she said.
Independent heads have criticised the lack of detail from Labour, such as whether particular groups of students might be exempt, saying it makes it impossible to plan their budgets.
Nevertheless, Sir Keir said his government would get on with implementing the policy “straight away”, if elected.
Mark Fenton, chief executive of the Grammar Schools Heads Association, said that on the basis “it is difficult to assess” the consequences of Labour’s policy, the body was not predicting a “material impact”.
“Grammar schools typically run at full capacity in every year group so they would not be in a position to absorb additional pupils.
“Grammars are also much more selective in their intake than most independent schools.”
A Labour Party spokesman said: “Independent schools have raised fees above inflation for well over a decade and do not have to pass Labour’s proposed change onto parents.
“Labour will invest in delivering a brilliant state education for children in every state school by recruiting over 6,500 new teachers, funded by ending tax breaks for private schools.”
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