Read Again: Turning School Census Data into Actionable Insights

In a recent article for Education Executive online, Andrew Blench talked about approaches to completing a school census and how to simplify the process. This month, he has some additional advice that can help you to elevate your organisation even further by utilising your census data

In my last blog post I wrote about the pupil census, why it’s important and gave some top tips on how to have a good census return. In this article, I will pick up on some ways in which the data in the census can be used. First here is a recap of the key dates:

Autumn census

census date – Thursday 3 October 2024

return date – Wednesday 30 October 2024

Spring census

census date – Thursday 16 January 2025

return date – Wednesday 12 February 2025

Summer census

census date – Thursday 15 May 2025

return date – Wednesday 11 June 2025

As a school business manager, it is likely that you either produce the census or line manage someone who completes this task. Once the census has been checked for accuracy and signed off by SLT, it is submitted to the ESFA (either directly by you or by the LA on your behalf).

But what happens to your census return after submission? Does it get filed away and not looked at again until the next return date? If so, then that is a missed opportunity. Here are some ways in which you can use the data.

Pupil Numbers Forecast

After each census take your total pupil numbers for each year group and update your pupil number forecast. Although the budget forecast requirement is for a 3-year period, I kept a 5-year pupil number forecast so that I could see emerging trends. This also makes sense to me as young people will be with your institution for at least 5 years.

When looking for trends in pupil numbers I would also look back 2 years, to see if I can spot a trend emerging and continuing into current and future years.

Budget Forecast

I would update my budget forecast with the latest pupil numbers. I used software which would automatically calculate future years funding allocations based upon the numbers I had input. If you don’t have software to do this for you a simple excel spreadsheet will do most of the work for you.

Disadvantage Factors

Keep a close eye on disadvantage factors in your data collection. Such as pupils with SEN, EAL and Pupil Premium, Universal Infant Free School Meals (UIFSM). From the totals in your census, you can calculate future years funding allocations.

Again, look for trends in these factors over a period of years. Are the overall % of pupils falling into the PP definition increasing or falling? If the % in your setting is consistent then you could apply that % to future years pupil totals and calculate your PP allocation for future years.

This can be done for EAL, UIFSM and SEN as well. Although SEN can be problematical to calculate funding it is not unreasonable to assume that the trend in overall numbers will be replicated in levels of total funding.

Curriculum Design

This leads into Integrated Curriculum and Financial Planning (ICFP). If the makeup of your pupils is changing census by census, then it’s likely that how the curriculum is delivered and staffed will need to change. For example, if EAL pupils are increasing, you will need to factor into staffing models and timetabling specific provision for them.

Red Flags

Look out for any significant changes which could become ‘red flags’ for external audiences. By external audiences I mean the LA, ESFA and Ofsted. Are there any significant changes in attendance, suspensions and exclusions, part time timetables for example. External organisations take a ‘risks based’ approach and in some cases put data returns through algorithms which then produce lists of schools worthy of attention. It is worth highlighting any concerns to SLT and governors should there be anything of note.

Public Sector Equality Duty (PSED)

Schools as with all publicly funded organisations are covered by the PSED. This places a legal obligation on schools to promote equality, diversity and inclusion. Specially schools must agree equality objectives (to be reviewed every 3 years) and track progress towards achievement of those objectives each year.

The census contains data such as sex, age, ethnicity, religion and belief, which are all useful for determining what your objectives should be and tracking progress. These are just a few ways in which the data can be used and is not an exhaustive list. May all your census returns be straightforward!