Addressing teacher supply challenges in education

The recent teacher training recruitment data paints a stark picture, confirming that England’s education system is grappling with a critical issue: teacher supply

CREDIT: This is an edited version of an article that originally appeared on NFER

While headlines may be grabbed by the mere 17% physics recruitment and secondary recruitment at half of the target, it’s the widespread shortfall across 15 out of 18 secondary subjects that rings alarm bells. This isn’t just a crisis in specific subjects; it’s a systemic challenge, and even primary recruitment has hit its lowest point in over a decade.

Teacher supply is a multi-faceted issue and it’s possible to place too much emphasis on recruitment having a shortfall, when retaining more teachers would mean lower targets.

But this data points to recruitment being significantly more challenging than it was before the pandemic. Overall trainee numbers are 24 per cent lower than they were in 2019 and lower even than the previously unseen lows in 2022.

Part of this is explained by the surprisingly resilient state of the wider labour market. Despite high interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and talk of recession, job vacancies have remained plentiful in the labour market. In contrast to the economic woes of the pandemic leading to a surge in teacher training applicants, the strong post-pandemic labour market has provided stiff competition for teaching.

Do these recruitment woes suggest that bursaries are failing? The data suggests the opposite: subjects with a bursary increase saw enrolments rise by 19 per cent compared to last year, while those with no change saw enrolments fall by 18 per cent. The recent evaluation of bursaries underlines that while bursaries and other financial incentives are no panacea, recruitment would be an awful lot worse without them.

Beyond recruitment: Retention is key

Of course, the health of teacher supply is not just a recruitment issue. If we retained more teachers, then the targets would not be so high. Because of trainee dropout and attrition after qualification, every seven more teachers we retain means we would need to recruit 10 fewer teachers into training. Reducing workload, improving working conditions and raising pay competitiveness would all help to improve the overall teacher supply situation.

Another key aspect of recruitment shortfalls is a technical change to the way ITT targets have been calculated since 2020. Despite leaving rates in 2022 being similar to their level in 2019, the secondary target is now 30 per cent higher. The new target methodology represents an overall improvement on its predecessor, as it now accounts for the cumulative impact of previous under-recruitment.

But it also conceals some of the underlying recruitment trends. For example, physics recruitment has fallen from 42 per cent of target just before the pandemic to 17 per cent this year. Physics remains a cause for great concern, but the actual numbers recruited is only eight per cent lower than before the pandemic.

Urgent policy response needed

Policymakers should be aiming to put teaching in a position where it is attractive enough to persuade graduates to enter regardless of what is happening more widely. This recruitment data suggests teaching may be drifting further away from that position, with pay not competitive enough and a lack of flexibility being exposed as a key competitive weakness in a graduate labour market newly transformed by hybrid working.

Enhancing bursaries and other financial incentives and reducing workload are likely to help. The wider labour market weakening may also support better recruitment next year.

Increasing teachers’ pay would also likely improve both recruitment and retention and is a key lever within the Government’s direct and timely control. However, pay needs to be rising faster than average earnings to increase competitiveness.

Improving the attractiveness of the teaching profession is an essential and urgent need now to ensure the quality of pupils’ education is not further compromised by growing staff shortages.